In-depth analysis: Why does Australia frequently change its mind? The truth behind it is thought-provoking

Hello everyone, I am the assistant of Australian Encyclopedia. Recently, some friends asked me aboutAustralia's policy has been repeatedly adjustedNow I will summarize the relevant issues and hope it will be helpful to those who want to know more.

In 2023, Australia suddenly announced the suspension of the "Golden Visa" program. This is the 17th major policy adjustment in the country in the past five years. From tearing up the "Belt and Road" agreement to AUKUS nuclear submarine cooperation, from halving immigration quotas to changing climate commitments, Australia's frequent "face changes" on the international stage have attracted widespread attention. What are the mysteries behind this policy swing?

1. Five major driving factors of policy change

1. Reconstruction of the international political landscape

As the strategic competition between China and the United States intensifies, Australia, as a core member of the "Five Eyes Alliance", is forced to take sides in foreign policy. The unilateral cancellation of the Darwin Port lease in 2021 directly led to a sharp drop in China-Australia trade from A$235 billion in 2019 to A$182 billion in 2022.

2. Domestic political games intensify

The differences in governing philosophy between the Labor Party and the Liberal Party are evident in areas such as climate change commitments (Labor Party pledged to reduce emissions by 431t/t by 2030) and immigration policy (the quota for skilled immigrants was reduced from 190,000 to 160,000 during the Liberal Party period). Every change of government will lead to a major policy shift.

3. Rebalancing economic interests

Iron ore price fluctuations directly affect policy direction. When the price falls below $100/ton, the government will more actively seek to repair trade with China. However, the surge in lithium ore exports in 2023 (a year-on-year increase of 210%) has led the authorities to adopt a more conservative strategy in the field of key minerals.

4. Public opinion continues to ferment

The 2023 poll showed that 68% of the public supported restrictions on foreign investment in agricultural land, which directly led to the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) lowering the review threshold from A$275 million to A$0. The topic of AustraliaFirst on social media has been discussed more than 120 million times.

5. Geo-security concerns escalate

The defense white paper shows that the proportion of military expenditure has increased from 1.8% in 2016 to 2.3% in 2023. The AUKUS agreement requires Australia to invest 368 billion Australian dollars in the development of nuclear submarines in the next 30 years. This security investment will inevitably squeeze resources in other areas.

II. Analysis of Typical Areas of Policy Adjustment

III. Core issues related to policy changes

Q1: What impact do policy changes have on immigration and studying abroad?

The skilled migration occupation list has been reduced from 673 in 2019 to 212 in 2023, but the number of medical and nursing positions has increased by 47%. Applicants are advised to pay attention to the sponsorship policies of various states. Victoria and Western Australia have recently added priority channels for the construction industry.

Q2: How will the policy direction evolve?

Think tank analysis shows that possible adjustments in 2024 include: raising the investment immigration threshold to 5 million Australian dollars, restoring the working hours limit for international students, and reducing the upper limit of foreign shareholding in key infrastructure to 10%.

Q3: How do ordinary people view these changes?

The latest polls show that there are obvious regional differences in the groups that support policy adjustments: Sydney residents only support it at 38%, while Perth residents support it at 61%. The Chinese community is the most opposed to the tightening of immigration policies, at 79%.

Q4: How to deal with policy uncertainty?

It is recommended to adopt the "three early principles": early planning (layout three years in advance), early filing (preparation of alternative plans), and early implementation (priority for key procedures). At the same time, a policy tracking mechanism should be established, subscribing to the Immigration Bureau Newsletter, and paying attention to the content of parliamentary hearings.

Thank you for your reading. I hope this article can help you understandThe underlying logic behind Australia’s policy adjustmentsPolicy changes are like the climate in Oceania, with both regularities and uncertainties. Readers are advised to establish a dynamic cognitive framework, pay attention to official documents such as government white papers, pay attention to think tank research reports, and maintain necessary flexibility in actual decision-making.

If you have any questions about a specific policy, please leave a message in the comment area. In the next issue, we will analyze in depth the "Top Ten Predictions for Australia's New Immigration Policy in 2024", so stay tuned! (The data in this article is as of December 2023, please refer to the official website for the latest developments)