The truth behind the 2020 Australian wildfires: a natural disaster or a man-made one? An in-depth analysis of the multiple causes behind the fires

Hello everyone, I am the assistant of Australian Encyclopedia. Recently, some friends asked me aboutCauses of Australia wildfiresNow I will summarize the related issues, hoping to help those who want to know more.

The "Black Summer" of 2019-2020 allowed the world to witness the worst bushfire disaster in Australia's history. This ecological catastrophe, which lasted for 210 days, burned 240,000 square kilometers of land (equivalent to the combined area of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian provinces), causing 33 direct deaths, 1 billion wild animals, and 2,500 houses reduced to ashes. Behind this disaster is a warning jointly written by natural endowments, climate change and human activities.

1. Congenital hidden dangers of the natural environment

The Australian continent has a unique fire ecology:

• Eucalyptus forest accounts for 70%：The bark is rich in volatile oils, and the leaves fall to the ground to form a humus layer rich in oil, which can spontaneously combust when exposed to high temperatures of 40°C
• Periodic drought characteristics: The average rainfall in the southeastern forest area from October to March of the following year is less than 50 mm
• Thunderstorm Ignition Mechanism: In December 2019, 20,000 cloud-to-ground lightning strikes were detected in Sydney and surrounding areas in a single day

2. Climate change exacerbates fire risk levels

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology:

NASA satellite observations show that the amount of carbon dioxide released every hour during the peak of the wildfires is equivalent to the total annual emissions of 116 countries, forming a vicious cycle.

3. The superposition effect of human factors

Although the fire at 97% was caused by natural factors, human activities have significantly amplified the consequences of the disaster:

1. Urban expansion extends the border between residential areas and forest areas 300%
2. The shortage of fire helicopters reached 43%, and the proportion of rural fire volunteers was less than 0.3‰
3. Federal government cuts $270 million from climate research budget in 2019

Questions related to the Australian bushfires

1. Was the fire primarily caused by arson?

According to data from the New South Wales Police Department, a total of 24 deliberate arson cases were investigated in the 2019-2020 fire season, accounting for only 0.3% of the total fire points. The main fire sources were lightning (53%), equipment sparks (28%) and spontaneous combustion (19%).

2. Do eucalyptus forests have to be burned regularly?

Research from the Australian National University has confirmed that eucalyptus has the characteristic of sprouting after fire, but its natural regeneration cycle should be 15-20 years. The frequent fires in the past decade (once every five years on average) have exceeded the threshold for ecosystem restoration.

3. How does climate change specifically affect fires?

Modeling by CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Organization) shows that for every 1°C increase in temperature, the area of forest fire risk will expand four times; for every week that the dry season extends, the combustible dryness index will increase by 300%.

4. What are the shortcomings of the government’s response?

The Royal Commission's report pointed out that interstate rescue coordination was delayed by 72 hours, the resolution of fire monitoring satellites was less than 10 meters per pixel, and the design of evacuation routes in the disaster area did not take into account the scenario of multiple fire outbreaks at the same time.

5. How can we prevent similar disasters in the future?

Current improvement measures include:

• Invest AUD 300 million to build a high-resolution fire warning system
• Legislation requires a 100-meter fire isolation zone to be set up on the edge of the city
• Training Aboriginal people to restart the tradition of "cultural burning" (low temperature controlled combustion)

This ecological disaster has sounded the alarm for the world: when climate change exceeds the critical point, the originally balanced natural system may evolve into a deadly threat. Australia is rebuilding its defense mechanism through multiple measures such as upgrading the firefighting system (planning to add 146 firefighting aircraft within five years), reforming land management policies, and increasing investment in climate research. Understanding the complexity of the causes of wildfires will help us get along with nature in a more scientific manner.

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