Why is the relationship between Australia and France tense? A comprehensive analysis of the diplomatic turmoil behind it

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Australia and France, two countries that are geographically far apart, have frequently made international headlines in recent years due to a series of diplomatic incidents. In particular, the submarine contract controversy in 2021 has brought the relationship between the two countries to a freezing point. So, what exactly happened between Australia and France? What are the deep-seated reasons behind this diplomatic turmoil? Today, let's take a deep look at this topic.

Why are relations between Australia and France strained?

The tension between Australia and France mainly stems from a "submarine contract storm" in 2021. The cause of the storm was that the Australian government unilaterally canceled the huge submarine contract signed with the French Naval Group (Naval Group), and instead reached a trilateral security agreement called "AUKUS" with the United States and the United Kingdom, planning to build nuclear-powered submarines with the support of British and American technology.

This decision made the French government extremely dissatisfied, believing that Australia's behavior was "treacherous" and seriously damaged the mutual trust between the two countries. French Foreign Minister Le Drian even publicly stated that this was an act of "stabbing in the back". Subsequently, France recalled its ambassadors to Australia and the United States in protest. This incident not only brought the relationship between Australia and France to a low point, but also attracted widespread attention from the international community.

Background of the Submarine Contract Controversy

To understand the seriousness of this storm, we first need to understand its background. In 2016, Australia and the French Naval Group signed a contract worth up to 90 billion Australian dollars, planning for France to build 12 conventional-powered submarines for Australia. This contract is not only the largest defense procurement project in Australia's history, but also the largest export order in the history of the French Naval Group, so it is of great strategic significance to both countries.

However, as time went on, the Australian government became dissatisfied with the progress of the contract. Frequent delays and budget overruns by the French Naval Group during the execution of the project led to serious doubts on the Australian side about the future of the contract. At the same time, Australia's security environment is also changing, especially in the context of increasing strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region, the Australian government has begun to reassess its defense needs.

The birth of the AUKUS protocol

It is in this context that the Australian government made a major strategic decision to cancel the submarine contract with France and instead work with the United States and the United Kingdom to jointly advance the construction plan of nuclear-powered submarines. The trilateral security agreement, called "AUKUS", was officially announced in September 2021 and aims to strengthen the military cooperation among the three countries in the Indo-Pacific region, especially by sharing advanced military technology to cope with increasingly complex regional security challenges.

For Australia, nuclear-powered submarines not only have stronger endurance and concealment, but can also better adapt to possible high-intensity conflict environments in the future. Therefore, the Australian government believes that this decision is in line with its long-term national security interests. However, this decision caught France off guard because the French side did not receive any advance notice, and even before the AUKUS agreement was announced, the French government was still negotiating with Australia on the details of the submarine contract.

France's strong reaction

France's reaction can be described as "angry". The French government not only recalled its ambassadors to Australia and the United States, but also canceled the "2+2" meeting between French and Australian foreign and defense ministers originally scheduled for October 2021. French President Emmanuel Macron publicly criticized the Australian government's decision, saying it "undermined trust among allies."

France's dissatisfaction is not only because of the loss of a huge contract, but more importantly, this incident makes France feel that its position on the international stage has been challenged. France has always regarded itself as an important player in the Indo-Pacific region and hopes to enhance its influence in the region through military cooperation with Australia. However, Australia's unilateral breach of contract has undoubtedly dealt a serious blow to France's strategic goal.

Australia's position

Facing France's strong protest, the Australian government's position appears relatively calm. Australian Prime Minister Morrison has repeatedly stated that this decision was based on national security considerations and was not directed against France. He also stressed that the relationship between Australia and France is still important and hopes that the rift between the two countries can be repaired in the future.

However, the Australian government's explanation did not completely calm France's anger. France believes that Australia should at least fully communicate and consult with France before making such a major decision, rather than suddenly announcing the cancellation of the contract at the last minute. This "unilateral" behavior undoubtedly made France feel despised and betrayed.

Impact of the storm

The submarine contract dispute not only had a profound impact on the bilateral relationship between Australia and France, but also changed the strategic landscape of the Indo-Pacific region to a certain extent. First, this incident made France more resolute in its position of "strategic autonomy". French President Macron stressed on many occasions that Europe must reduce its security dependence on the United States and enhance its own defense capabilities.

Secondly, this incident has also affected Australia's image in the international community. Although the Australian government emphasizes that its decision is based on national security considerations, many countries believe that Australia's lack of transparency and diplomatic skills in handling this issue may cause certain obstacles to its future international cooperation.

Finally, this incident also highlights the increasingly complex international relations in the Indo-Pacific region. As the strategic competition between China and the United States intensifies, more and more countries are beginning to seek new partners and security guarantees in the region. The AUKUS agreement between Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom is undoubtedly a reflection of this trend.

Future Directions

Although the relationship between Australia and France is currently at a low point, it is still possible for the two countries to repair their relationship in the future. After all, the two sides still have extensive room for cooperation in many areas, such as climate change, trade and cultural exchanges. In addition, France also realizes that completely cutting off ties with Australia is not in its long-term strategic interests.

However, repairing relations is not something that can be done overnight. The Australian government needs to pay more attention to communication and coordination with its allies in future foreign policy to avoid similar incidents from happening again. At the same time, France also needs to reassess its strategic positioning in the Indo-Pacific region and look for new opportunities for cooperation.

In general, this diplomatic storm between Australia and France is not only a major test of the relationship between the two countries, but also a microcosm of the complexity of international relations. In the future, as the international situation continues to change, the direction of the relationship between the two countries is still full of uncertainty.

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